Short USDJPY 3rd October 2016

USDJPY D1 Chartusdjpydaily-20161003USDJPY H4 Chartusdjpy-h4-20161003

Technical Analysis: The price is seen resisted at the top of a major falling trend channel and thus expecting the price to fall.
However, the price has been major consolidation since it was supported at major support level 99.81 and it seems to be ending soon, meaning a very strong breakout is going to happen soon.
Market Sentiment: The dollar is considered slightly bullish since December rate hike expectation is still there while the yen is still very uncertain. There is no clear sentiment in this trade but just pure technical reasons that are the price is at the top of a major falling trend channel and there is still a good 100 pips towards the bottom of the major consolidation at major support level 99.81
Trading Plan: Shorted half-risk as the price is still lingering at the top of the major falling trend channel.
Stop loss was set 50 pips above the top of the major falling trend channel as past record shows the biggest spike up at close to 40 pips.
Once price falls and at least reaching 100.83, wait for the price to make 2 minor retracements and look to sell again towards major support level 99.81.
Entered another half-risk after seeing that the price has retraced to the top of another key falling trend channel based on H4 chart.

USDJPY H4 Chartusdjpyh4-20161003USDJPY M15 ChartUSDJPYM15 20161003.png

In M15 chart, the price is seen rejected as soon as it touches the resistance zone and the top of the key falling trend channel within the major channel.
It is possible to believe that the price will continue to trade within the current major consolidation thus the price is still likely to fall now.
Result: Total loss of 3% as price broke above the top of the major falling trend channel.
USDJPY should begin trending now as it broke above a major consolidation.
Will be waiting for the price to start retracing and look for a level to buy.

USDJPY H4USDJPY.H4 20161004 Result.png

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