Technical Analysis:
A double top formation was formed within a major resistance zone, giving more than enough reason that the price will fall.
In M15 chart, the price has failed to break beyond the resistance zone and fell to the bottom of the zone and pulled back for a better price to sell.
Market Sentiment:
Probably the best time to have no fundamental reason to sway the currency in any direction. In any case, USDJPY is pretty overbought and it is hard not to expect some strong resistance at the current major resistance zone.
Trading Plan:
Short with 1/2 risk and wait for a minor retracement to enter the remaining half risk.
Stop loss set at 22 pips above the double top formation.
Look for taking profit when the price reaches the neckline of the double top at 102.85, then wait for a retracement to short again, aiming at 101.70.
Modification:
[11/10/16 22:25] Shorted another 1/2 risk as price makes a minor retracement to a minor support turned resistance, and after price started to fall.
[12/10/16 8:00] Shifted Stop Loss to 20 pips above the probable 2nd retracement and added another 1/2 risk from the amount of risk saved through shifting stop loss.
If price retrace and completes a 2nd wave of retracement, enter another 1/2 risk.
[10:36] Entered another 1/2 risk from the amount of risk saved through shifting stop loss as the price has completed 2 minor retracements and resisted a second time at the high of the 2nd retracement and started falling.
If the price, after completing its 3rd wave of minor retracement and still break higher, 1/2 of the whole position for this trade will be closed.
[19:52] Exited 2 positions as the price has broken above the top of the 3rd retracement.
[20:11] The remaining 2 initial trades hit stop loss.
Result: 2.44% loss
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