usdjpy-h4-20161011
USDJPY H4, Double Top Within Resistance Zone
usdjpy-m15-20161011
USDJPY M15, Resisted at Top of Resistance Zone

Technical Analysis:
A double top formation was formed within a major resistance zone, giving more than enough reason that the price will fall.

In M15 chart, the price has failed to break beyond the resistance zone and fell to the bottom of the zone and pulled back for a better price to sell.

Market Sentiment:
Probably the best time to have no fundamental reason to sway the currency in any direction. In any case, USDJPY is pretty overbought and it is hard not to expect some strong resistance at the current major resistance zone.

Trading Plan:
Short with 1/2 risk and wait for a minor retracement to enter the remaining half risk.

Stop loss set at 22 pips above the double top formation.

Look for taking profit when the price reaches the neckline of the double top at 102.85, then wait for a retracement to short again, aiming at 101.70.

Modification:
[11/10/16 22:25] Shorted another 1/2 risk as price makes a minor retracement to a minor support turned resistance, and after price started to fall.

USDJPY.M15 20161011 mod1.png
USDJPY M15, Minor Support Turned Resistance

[12/10/16 8:00] Shifted Stop Loss to 20 pips above the probable 2nd retracement and added another 1/2 risk from the amount of risk saved through shifting stop loss.

USDJPY.H1 20161012 mod2.png
USDJPY H1, One Minor Retracement…and Falling Already?

If price retrace and completes a 2nd wave of retracement, enter another 1/2 risk.

[10:36] Entered another 1/2 risk from the amount of risk saved through shifting stop loss as the price has completed 2 minor retracements and resisted a second time at the high of the 2nd retracement and started falling.

USDJPY.M15 20161012 mod2.png
USDJPY M15, Completed 2 Minor Retracements, Then Came The 3rd Wave.

If the price, after completing its 3rd wave of minor retracement and still break higher, 1/2 of the whole position for this trade will be closed.

[19:52] Exited 2 positions as the price has broken above the top of the 3rd retracement.

USDJPY.M15 20161012 mod3.png
USDJPY M15, Price Broke Above 3rd Retracement

[20:11] The remaining 2 initial trades hit stop loss.

USDJPY.M15 20161012 mod4.png
USDJPY M15, Hit Stop Loss

Result: 2.44% loss