audusd-h4-20161102
AUDUSD H4, Price Appreciating Towards Major Resistance Zone
audusd-m15-20161102-entry
AUDUSD M15, Retracement Channel Completed at FR78.6%

Technical Analysis:
The price has gained and completed 2 waves of the trend since it rebounded off from the major rising trendline. The price is now appreciating towards the major resistance zone.

In M15 chart since the 2nd wave of trend has completed, the price has retraced significantly and completed a retracement channel and started to rebound off from FR78.6%.

Market Sentiment:
Since RBA kept its rate unchanged again, the Aussie has strengthened which is how the 2nd wave of the trend was completed. The price is also seen moving towards the major resistance zone thus I believe it will make another wave of trend and reach the major resistance zone. However, there is a need to observe closely as NFP will be released in another 2 days, and the upcoming ADP NFP will usually change a market trend just before the actual NFP.

Trading Plan:
Long at 1/2 risk as uncertainty from NFP can break the current structure and also the trade was not executed in the right market hour.

If the price retraced back to previous low and rebounded off again, another 1/2 risk will be added to the trade.

First TP is seen at 0.7658, FR61.8%, as there is a previous high that may cause resistance. Second TP will be all the way back to previous swing high, and the final TP is all the way into the major resistance zone where FR161.8% is sitting in.

audusd-h1-20161102-trading-plan
AUDUSD H1, Trading Plan

Modification:
Full exit as FOMC statement is about to released and price lost its strength at FR88.6% of the retracement channel.

Result: Gain 1.52%AUDUSD.H1 20161103 results.png

Learning:
It was a good decision to close the trade before a major news especially at the current market situation which is still very uncertain and thus causing the price to become indecisive. An indecisive market usually does not have a sustainable trend.

Alternatively, I could have just taken partial profit, usually half of it before the major news. I did not do so because this trade was only executed with 1/2 risk.