Fake-out, Rebounding Off from Bottom of Rising Channel, Retracement Channel Completed at FR88.6%, Long USDCHF, 8th November 2016

USDCHF H4, Fake-out and Rebounding Off from Bottom of Rising Channel

USDCHF M15, Retracement Channel Completed at FR88.6%

Technical Analysis:
The price was seen coming back into the rising channel after a fake-out to break below the channel. The price has also gained enough to break higher than the previous swing high, signaling for the price to gain further within the rising channel.
In the M15 chart, the price has completed a retracement channel and price has begun to rebound off from FR88.6%.
Market Sentiment:
No doubt U.S. election is happening soon, most of the impact was priced in and all that’s left was for the result to be out. Anything can happen from now till the result is been announced but it is also at this point of uncertainty that traders look for technical setups to trade the market just before the result of the election. And in any case, Clinton has a higher hand now and that will mean the dollar is most likely to appreciate further.
Trading Plan:
Long with 1/2 risk as the trade was not executed within the market hours.
First TP level is seen at previous swing high, followed by 0.9803, FR161.8%, and finally, 0.9852, completing the full wave of this 2nd wave and just before a key support turned resistance level.
If the price retraces back to FR88.6% and rebound off again, enter another 1/2 risk.
USDCHF H1, Trading Plan

[8/11/2016 15:09]
Long with another 1/2 risk after seeing the price has gone down to a better entry price and resuming appreciation while still maintaining the structure of the retracement channel and supported above FR88.6%.
USDCHF M15, Second Entry

[18:15] Shift stop loss to the swing low of the retracement channel as the price has broken above the retracement channel.
[9/11/2016 06:07] Exit the first trade as the price has reached FR161.8% and pulling back and the U.S. election poll has opened.
USDCHF.M15 20161109 first TP.png
USDCHF M15, Take Profit at FR161.8%

Also, shifted stop loss to the level slightly above the second entry in case of sudden market movement caused by U.S. election.
[08:46] The price hit stop loss and exited the second trade.
Result: Gain 2.71%
It was an excellent choice to exit the first trade as it reaches an exhaustion level at FR161.8%. There was nothing much left to push the dollar higher since the polling has just begun and the gain is probably due to an optimism that Hillary may win the election while no vote has been counted and released yet.
Shifting the stop loss to protect the trade was a good decision too because I do not assume how the result will turn out to be and avoided an unexpected turnout where Trump was leading and the dollar started to plunge.
A smart trader plans for different outcomes and never assume how the market will react.

Leave a Reply