nzdusd-h4-20161116
NZDUSD H4, Approaching Bottom of Major Rising Channel
nzdusd-m15-20161116-entry
NZDUSD M15, Retracement Channel Completed @ FR78.6%

Technical Analysis:
The price has been falling from the top of a major rising channel based on D1 chart and is in the process of completing its 2nd major wave of depreciation after a retracement channel has completed in the H4 chart.

The price has currently completed a retracement channel and started to fall from FR78.6%.

Market Sentiment:
The kiwi has been weakening since the speech by Wheeler saying that its currency is too strong. The pair continues to weaken also because the dollar has been strengthening after U.S. election.

Trading Plan:

nzdusd-m15-20161116-trading-plan
NZDUSD M15, Trading Plan

Short with 1/2/full risk. Stop loss placed at    20 pips above FR88.6%     .

Trade was executed within market hours and   19  hrs before the next major news release.

Take Profit 1: 0.7074 (FR88.6%)
Take Profit 2: 0.7044 (FR161.8% at key support level)
Take Profit Final: 0.6999 (FR261.8% near bottom of major rising channel)

Initial follow-up plan: If the price breaks below the retracement channel, shift stop loss the swing high of the retracement channel. If the price fails to break below and rebounded off and break above the current swing high, exit 1/2 position.

Modification:
[16/11/2016 15:47]
Stop loss shifted to 0.7114 as price broke below retracement channel.

[17:58] Short again with the risk saved from shifting of stop loss as the price has broken below the previous swing low and retraced twice.

[19:05] Shift stop loss to 0.7097 at the current swing high as the price has broken below the beginning of the retracement channel.

[20:54] Take 1/2 profit from the first trade as the price is pulling away from TP2 at FR161.8%

[00:18] Full Exit all trades as the price is still retracing and there is key economic news releasing around 5:00 am later.

Trading Result: Gain 4.84%NZDUSD.M15 20161116 result.png

Learning:
A perfect example of trading the retracement channel and looking for an opportunity to stack additional trade using only the risk saved from shifting stop loss.

Closing all positions before a key economic news release, especially at hours I am still sleeping is a wise choice to avoid any disappointment.